Ukraine War casualty figures show the age of low-casualty wars could be over. I estimate the Ukraine War casualties from in 2022–2024 was 1.193 million on both sides. To explain, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy admits his nation's military has suffered 43,000 deaths and 370,000 injuries. Meanwhile, official Ukrainian estimates of Russian losses, as of 1 January 2025, are 790,050 troops.
Indeed, former US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin estimates the Russian military has lost over 76% of its manpower in Ukraine. "Russian casualties in Ukraine now surpass two-thirds of the total strength of the Russian military at the start of Putin's war of choice," Austin speculates.
Enormous Casualties
"Since 2022, Russia has suffered more than 700,000 casualties in Ukraine," Austin claims. Now, that's more than Moscow has endured in all of its conflicts since World War II — combined. "In November 2024 alone, Russia lost nearly 1,500 troops a day."
The enormous casualty figures are why commanders on both sides are taking desperate measures to find soldiers to fight the war. For example, the Russian Army has transferred Aerospace Forces (Air Force) ground crew, warehouse personnel, sailors from the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, and even police SWAT teams to the infantry.
"You know, volunteers cannot make up for these stunning losses," Austin observes. "So the Kremlin has been reduced to scouring Russia's jails and coercing contract soldiers."
Similarly, the Ukrainian General Staff is transferring several thousand men from the Air Force to the Ground Forces (Army). They transferred the airmen to the Ground Forces because they don't have enough soldiers at the front.
Hence, neither the Russian nor the Ukrainian army have enough men to fight the war. Notably, the Kremlin is so desperate for cannon fodder it has imported cheap and expendable North Korean infantry to defend Russian territory from Ukrainian invaders in the Kursk Oblast.
Does the US military face a Manpower Shortage?
Cynics will wonder if the US military will soon find itself in similar desperate straights. Raw numbers show the US military lacks the manpower to fight a Ukraine level war.
The US Army has around 463,000 active-duty soldiers. The latest official number I could find was 463,083 from the Army's 31 October 2022 Active Component Demographics document. Ukraine combat shows the Army could lose most of its personnel quickly. Furthermore, there are around 186,000 active duty US Marines, the Heritage Foundation estimates.
Hence, I estimate the US has around 649,000 active duty soldiers. Active-duty soldiers are people in uniform the generals can send into battle now. Obviously, most of those people are not combat troops, but I imagine most of them have infantry training.
Frighteningly, Ukrainian data shows the Russians lost 790,050 casualties in two and a half years of war. Okay, casualties can be anything from a stubbed toe to permanent disability. However, we can assume that 790,050 Russian soldiers suffered some sort of injury that put them out of combat temporarily or permanently.
Thus, the Russian military's Ukraine War casualty levels exceed the fighting strength of the US Army and the US Marine Corps. This could doom any US war effort because the Pentagon is having a hard time replacing the soldiers it has.
Why the US cannot Fight a Large Ground War
The US Army bested its recruiting goal of attracting 55,300 new soldiers in the 2024 fiscal year, a press release boasts. Another 11,000 people have signed contracts to enlist in the future in the Army's delayed entry program.
Cynics will note that the 55,300 new recruits is less than 10% of the Army's strength. Yet Austin admits the Russian military suffered a 76% casualty rate in Ukraine. Thus, the Army is incapable of replacing high losses.
Interestingly, the Marines do a far better job of recruiting than the Army. They recruited 30,500 new Marines in the 2024 fiscal year. Yet, I estimate the number of new recruits for both the Army and Marines was 85,800 in 2024. Thus, current recruiting can only replace a little over 13% of the Army and Marines' manpower.
Army recruiting is improving. The number of recruits rose from 50,181 in the 2023 fiscal year. Cynics will observe the Army increased the numbers by lowering recruit standards. For example, by recruiting older and less fiscally fit people.
Drones will fight the Next War
Therefore, I think it could be impossible for the US to fight a large ground war with infantry. Instead, the Pentagon will have to use drones, air power, and artillery to fight the next war. This will create high casualties.
Notably, the Ukrainians are already fighting that war, and the Pentagon is preparing for one. For example, defense contractor Anduril plans to build a $1 billion dollar drone factory near Columbus, Ohio.
Anduril claims this facility, Arsenal-1, will mass produce Roadrunner, Barracuda, Fury, and other drones for the military. The idea is to create giant swarms of drones that will fight the next war. The Pentagon needs those drones because the generals know they don't have the soldiers to fight the next war.
One Pentagon priority is the Replicator Project, which will produce those drones. Obviously, details are top secret, but I assume they plan to create artificial intelligence (AI) to operate drones. They need AI controlled drones to overcome jamming which blocks signals between controllers and drones in the sky.
One reason for AI is to enable long-range drone attacks, which are a crucial weapon for both the Russians and Ukrainians. Notably, Russian and Ukrainian drones are slowly destroying each other's infrastructure.
Why the Draft is not the Answer
Many people will wonder if a draft (conscription) is a solution. I say no for three reasons.
1. A New Draft is Politically Impossible in the United States
A draft will be unpopular and trigger a political backlash. The last time the federal government drafted people to fight overseas was in the Vietnam War.
In 1964, the architect of the Vietnam War, President Lyndon B. Johnson (D-Texas) won election by a margin of 90.3% of the Electoral College and 61.1% of the popular vote. Four years later, in 1968, after tens of thousands of casualties in Vietnam and escalation of the draft. Johnson dropped out of the Democratic presidential primary to avoid a humiliating defeat.
Johnson's successor, Vice President Hubert Humphrey (D-Minnesota) lost the 1968 election to Richard M. Nixon (R-California). As president, Nixon ended the draft and won reelection by the largest margin since George Washington. 96.7% of the Electoral College vote and 60.7% of the popular vote. Notably, Nixon won reelection despite continuing the Vietnam War because he ended the draft.
Most American politicians remember LBJ's fate and want to avoid it. More recently, politicians remember the political backlash against the Iraq War. That backlash cost Republicans both the White House and control of Congress.
I suspect most US politicians do not want to risk a draft.
2. The Draft may not be Constitutional
Nobody knows if the draft is constitutional. However, strict interpretationists and civil libertarians will note that the draft violates the letter and the spirit of the 13th Amendment to the US Constitution.
The 13th Amendment states: "Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction."
Forced military service (the draft) is clearly involuntary servitude. Moreover, the 13th Amendment makes no exception for military service. Although, you could argue it is constitutional for the government to force convicts to serve in the military as a punishment for a crime.
The US Supreme Court has not ruled on the draft's constitutionality since the Selective Draft Law Cases in 1918. In those cases, the Supremes ruled that Section One Article Eight of the Constitution gives Congress the power to raise armies by any means necessary, including the draft. Those cases upheld the Constitutionality of the World War I draft.
Would today's strict interpretationist Supreme Court majority accept such fuzzy logic? I don't know, although I suspect conservative justices will think this goes too far. Hence, the military could hold a draft and call up tens of thousand of people. Only to send them all home after one court ruling.
My guess is the generals will not waste time and money on a draft until they know the Supreme Court will not rule it unconstitutional.
3. The Draft cannot deliver the soldiers. The Pentagon will need fast enough.
I think it will take several months or a year just to lay the groundwork for a draft. For example, they will have to build or reopen training camps, buy weapons and uniforms, and organize training units to get the troops.
Next, it will take several weeks to gather the draftees and start training them. Finally, it will take several months, a year, or longer, to train the troops depending on their military specialty. For instance, it took two years to train and deploy the forces drafted for World War II. The draft began in 1940, but the first troops were not ready until 1942.
Hence, it could be a year and a half or two years before the first draftee is available for service. Embarrassingly, the war could be over by the time the draftees become available. For instance, less than half the 4.8 million soldiers recruited for World War I were shipped to Europe. The Army sent most of the World War I draftees and volunteers home in late 1918 after the war ended.
Thus, a draft may not supply the troops the Pentagon needs fast enough.
Consequently, the draft is not a practical solution. Although there is a minority that favors conscription for ideological or political reasons.
The sorry truth is the US military may not have enough people to fight the next war. Frighteningly, nobody in Washington, DC, is talking about this nightmare.
*https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russia-has-lost-808-250-troops-in-ukraine-since-feb-24-2022/
*https://www.army.mil/article/280028/army_exceeds_fy_2024_active_duty_recruiting_goals
*https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/368528/us-military-army-navy-recruit-numbers
*https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/anduril-industries-ohio/
*https://www.marinecorpstimes.com/news/your-marine-corps/2024/09/30/marines-barely-meet-annual-recruiting-goals-but-see-encouraging-signs/
*https://www.anduril.com/article/anduril-building-arsenal-1-hyperscale-manufacturing-facility-in-ohio
*https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/1964
*https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/1972
*https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/245/366/
*https://archivesfoundation.org/documents/mobilizing-war-selective-service-act-world-war/