It's said that in any conflict, the most dangerous opponent is the one with the least to lose — while those holding more assets inevitably reveal vulnerabilities.
In the current Iran-US tensions, Iran is the 'low-stakes player', while America and the global order have everything to lose. And this makes the dynamics extremely dangerous.
Realistically, how much damage can a weakened Iran actually inflict on America or the world? Aside from America and Israel, which other nations truly have skin in this game?
My dear readers, the answer lies in Iran's potential disproportionate retaliation, the very deterrent that has prevented global powers from attacking its strategic assets for decades. While America itself may be untouchable, Iran can certainly deliver this answer to US allies stationed in Iran's neighborhood.
In the event of any attack, Iran will not hesitate to target Gulf states, having already lost so much. At that point, striking neighbors and provoking multiple nations (beyond just America) would hardly make its situation worse for Iran.
Iran has already attacked Saudi oil fields in the past. While six years have passed since that incident, Tehran has made it crystal clear that its drones can reach anywhere on Saudi soil, no matter how many American defense systems the Kingdom installs.
If Iran succeeds in destroying just five or six oil fields, imagine the global repercussions. The world is already struggling with daily oil price fluctuations due to various crises, but when a significant chunk of supply gets wiped out, what will become of the poor global economy? Remember that Saudi Arabia is the world's second-largest oil producer.
That was just about the impact on Saudi oil. Now, take a moment to consider Saudi Vision 2030, under which the Kingdom is tirelessly working to build world-class infrastructure to attract maximum tourism.
Imagine if Iran's attacks spark security fears — empty luxury hotels in Riyadh, canceled concerts in Al-Ula, and investors fleeing. Imagine the $500 billion NEOM project reduced to smoldering ruins.
Do you really think Saudi Arabia would let billions — even trillions — of dollars vanish in minutes under Iranian missile fire? All that oil wealth, years of backbreaking labor, gleaming skyscrapers and futuristic stadiums gone in the blink of an eye?
In this scenario, the United Arab Emirates is even more precarious. Having already invested staggering sums and effort to build an artificial wonderland, one that now attracts virtually every global tourist, this glittering facade could, unfortunately, be reduced to rubble by just a few well-placed Iranian strikes.
Dubai's sheikhs could go from the world's richest to its poorest overnight. With a huge chunk of Dubai's GDP tied to tourism/trade, Iranian strikes could erase decades of wealth in hours. Recovery? Think in years, not months.
Or perhaps, as they say, Gaza's rubble will take at least 15 years to clear, Dubai's sky-piercing towers might make experts estimate that this will take a century, minimum. Only then could the city even begin rebuilding its future.
But perhaps, recognizing Dubai's critical importance, the world itself will redouble efforts to prevent an Iran-US war. After all, Dubai is the planet's logistical hub and home to unparalleled tourism.
Note that Iran-backed Houthis have already demonstrated precision missile strikes inside the UAE using Iranian-supplied weapons.
Now consider Qatar. It has flagged an even graver danger — one where Iran wouldn't even need to fire a single weapon.
The Qatari Prime Minister recently warned that if radioactive material from Iran contaminates the Persian Gulf, most Gulf states would be left without viable water sources. Only Saudi Arabia might survive this scenario, given its additional access to the Red Sea.
All Gulf states depend on processed seawater for drinking and bathing. They have neither flowing rivers nor substantial groundwater reserves. And if the Houthis gain access to radioactive material and release it into the Red Sea, it would trigger the worst global crisis in living memory, with consequences lasting for generations.
This rapidly developing region would turn into a wasteland overnight, leaving nothing but ruins in its wake. Now that we grasp these realities, let's examine Iran's military capabilities.
While it's true that recent Iran-Israel tensions have dealt significant blows to Iran's military prestige, Tehran still possesses a formidable arsenal of dangerous missiles. Not to mention Iran's recent release of a video displaying entire underground 'missile cities' packed with weapons.
Note that Iran has developed a missile named Khyber-buster (or Khybaer Shekan), which, according to Iranian officials, can easily penetrate any American or Israeli defense system to strike its target. Additionally, this missile's speed, comparable to Mach 2 or 3, enables it to target even B-2 bomber aircraft. In other words, in the event of a US attack, American aircraft may not find it as easy to return as one might assume.
These are just the missiles. According to some reports, Iran has also made small submarines with the help of North Korea, capable of inflicting heavy damage on the US Navy.
In addition, there are heated reports that Iran has built new, much deeper underground nuclear facilities — immune to bombing. And to top it off, some further reports suggest Iran is so prepared that it could produce at least six nuclear weapons whenever it chooses.
I pray that tensions cool down and the situation does not escalate to the point of damage. But if a war does break out between Iran and America, it won't end easily. The world will have to pay a very heavy price.
South Asia is also witnessing troubling developments. If Pakistan and India were to go to war, the resulting devastation could spell another catastrophe for the entire world. We will soon publish a detailed article on this issue for you.
I try to bring forward perspectives that the world rarely sees. And I believe that if such viewpoints emerge, nations can find many opportunities to reform themselves — if they so choose. So, if you appreciate my efforts, please do follow me and be sure to read my other articles on the Iran-Israel and America situation. Thanks for your support.