Iran's Retaliation Blueprint Is Ready. And It Should Worry Everyone.

It's not about the Strait of Hormuz or contaminating the Gulf's waters with nuclear waste…

In response to recent threats of attack and military buildup by the US, Iran responded by saying that "it will retaliate like never before."

Now, receiving such a response isn't surprising. Even the weakest armies say such things when threatened. And Iran is, among the armies the US has clashed with in this century, the strongest foe.

But if we carefully analyze Iran's message within the context of the 12-day war last June, we can get the potential severity of this threat. It is one that might eventually bring the whole world down.

Here's how. Take a look at the picture circulating on X nowadays.

It marks five Israeli targets which, if attacked successfully, can bring the whole Israeli economy to its knees and eventually "deport" everyone living there. And with no population and economy, Israel could collapse in days if not hours.

These targets are the water desalination plants.

Like other Middle Eastern nations, Israel doesn't have sufficient flowing water for household use and to sustain its industries. So, it has built five major desalination plants on the Mediterranean coast to make seawater usable for its population.

Estimates say that at least 65% of Israel's water comes from these plants. The rest comes from natural lakes, rivers, and groundwater.

Can you run a country without water? Absolutely not. And if Iran successfully destroys these water desalination plants, the game could be over for Israel in no time. With no water to sustain the economy and for domestic consumption, the hustling-bustling country of Israel will come to a halt.

Iran's use of water as a weapon is now highly likely. Here's why:

1. Iran knows that it can't sustain a long war, as its regime would surely collapse. So naturally, there's no point in not hitting the enemy where it hurts the most when you yourself are not going to survive.
2. During the 12-day war, the attacks were limited. Both sides showed restraint, and attacks were more symbolic than decisive. Iran didn't go all out because it preferred a ceasefire. That's why it attacked a target in Qatar only after warning the Qatari government. This time, however, it's clear that no holds will be barred. All gloves are off. And that goes for both sides.
3. Iran has unequivocally declared that it will attack Israel if the US attacks Iran, even if Israel doesn't play any role in the war. Iran has also declared that even a small, limited attack by the US will be considered the start of an all-out war.
4. Water wars are real. There are recent examples in the international community of similar tactics. Look at South Asia. After a terrorist attack in India in April 2025, which India blamed on Pakistan, India suspended the Indus Water Treaty. This treaty guaranteed that Pakistan would keep receiving water from the rivers that flow from India. Pakistan's entire economy depends on this water, and without this treaty, India could stop the water, eventually desertifying Pakistan without firing a single shot. Iran might very well be taking this move out of the Indian playbook to justify its attack on Israel's water plants. After all, everything is fair in love and war.
5. Furthermore, the recent history of using water as a weapon also exists within the Iran-Israel conflict. Recently, Israeli PM Netanyahu openly tried to exploit Iran's water shortage issues in Israel's favor. This means that Iran might want to exploit Israel's water issues in a tit-for-tat response.

Having said that, on the surface, if such a situation arises, this would seem to be only Israel's problem. However, it has the catastrophic potential to become a global problem almost immediately.

Here's why I say this.

Just as I argued that Iran will try to escalate this war because it will be sure its regime won't survive, Israel would also escalate far more drastically if its collapse seems imminent.

For those who don't know, Israel is widely believed to have a "Samson Option." This is a purported last-resort strategy to be employed if it ever feels the threat of annihilation. In simple words, this doctrine says that Israel will nuke the whole region if its own survival is at stake.

After all, no water means no population and no economy. And without these two pillars, a state can't survive.

The name of this doctrine is a reference to the biblical Israelite judge Samson, who pushed apart the pillars of a Philistine temple, bringing down the roof and killing himself and thousands of Philistines who had captured him.

And if Israel ever employs the Samson Option, I don't need to explain what will happen next to the whole world…

Even if we never see Iranian attacks on Israeli water desalination plants, there are plenty of other options Iran would definitely pursue.

I wish things never escalate. But if the US really wants to attack Iran, any action would need to be super-calculated. Unless it boosts defenses in the Middle East so much that no Iranian missile can penetrate them, I don't think it's wise to start a war.

The US needs to make sure that the Iranian missile barrage that overwhelmed Israeli air defenses in June can be stopped from hitting any critical target this time. Or ultimately the onus of the losses in the whole world will be on the US alone.

The situation reminds me of a famous Urdu couplet:

لے سانس بھی آہستہ کہ نازک ہے بہت کام

آفاق کی اس کارگہ شیشہ گری کا

Take even a breath gently, for very delicate is the work

Of this glassblower's workshop of the cosmos.

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