Suppose America finally launches a massive attack on Iran and now the Ayatollah regime is a part of history.
Now, there is either a pro-American leader in power in Iran, or the Iranians cannot agree on a government, and all major ethnic groups like the Kurds and Baloch have established their own separate governments.
But regardless of the outcome, America will achieve multiple victories beyond just the Middle Eastern front:
- First, China could no longer purchase Iranian oil. Just a few weeks ago, it lost access to Venezuelan oil as well. All of this will ultimately create long-term challenges for the Chinese economy.
- Second, the calculus of the Strait of Hormuz will entirely change. Under the Ayatollah's regime, if it were blocked, the West and its allies would bear the loss. But now, if a pro-American regime blocks it, the loss will be borne by China, Russia, and their allies.
- Third, the supply of Iranian drones to Russia will now be cut off. This means that a reduction in Russian aggression in Ukraine could be expected to some extent.
- Fourth, America will now be positioned just seventy kilometers from the Pakistani port of Gwadar. This means the flagship structures of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative will now be easily within its reach.
- Fifth, by gaining control over Iran and Venezuela, America will now become the country with the world's largest oil reserves. It can now easily lower oil prices. This, in turn, will dismantle the primary source of income for Russia and the Gulf nations at any time.
- Sixth, the Ayatollah's regional proxy groups, which had been a persistent headache for Israel, will now be permanently gone.
- And seventh, and the most important one, is that if there is to be a hegemon in the region, it will be Israel alone.
And it is precisely from here that the real game will begin.
The fall of the Iranian government will undoubtedly bring an end to this 'axis of resistance' that the West feared. But it will ultimately give birth to a new 'axis of resistance' that will haunt the East, particularly the Arab nations.
And the most terrifying aspect of this will be that, unlike the previous 'Axis of Resistance,' this one will be completely unbridled and several times more powerful.
The reality is that, no matter how rogue Iran under the Ayatollahs may have been, it at least kept another rogue force in check. Because of this, a balance of power was maintained in the Middle East. But now, all power will tilt decisively in Israel's favor.
In reality, Israel is also a type of Iran. Extremists are in power there as well. They just appear slightly more presentable.
And this new 'Resistance', Israel, may or may not carry out occasional small, non-kinetic attacks through proxies, but it will definitely conduct direct military bombings to reduce the region to rubble. There will be no one to stop it, nor will it itself have any regard for international law.
The reason for this is that this new 'Resistance' has repeatedly spoken of expanding its territory several times over. In fact, there are clear indications of support for these ambitions from the current American president.
And since new land cannot be created, achieving this goal will demand the sacrifice of at least seven neighboring Arab nations.
Before today, there was the fear of a second power, Iran under the Ayatollahs. That will no longer exist.
Why would the Arab nations, whose majority population considers Israel a colonial project, allow this new 'Resistance' to seize their land as well?
It'll bring a bloody war.
The truth is that Israel's past reveals many instances where it was simply waiting for an opportunity, and as soon as it arose, it achieved its ambitions. Our ancestors may remember the opportunity it seized in 1967, and our own generation has witnessed such an opportunity live in 2023.
Why would it then be difficult for Israel to find an opportunity to seize Arab land after the Iranian issue is resolved? The truth is, it will indeed find that opportunity. It is only a matter of sooner or later.
It is a geographic vulnerability and misfortune for the Arab nations that they are caught between Iran on one side and Israel on the other. Both are eager to dominate them. Whichever one is 'subtracted,' the one that does the subtracting will establish dominance over the Arabs. And now it is certain that the one doing the subtracting will be Israel.
Perhaps the Arab nations had clearly perceived this during the Israel-Iran war in June. That is why they now consider Israel, not Iran, their primary security threat. Saudi Arabia even took steps to acquire Pakistan's nuclear umbrella in an attempt to deter Israel.
The September Israeli airstrikes in Qatar made it abundantly clear to the Arab nations that a situation akin to Gaza is inevitably around the corner for them as well.
That is why, after Iran's departure, they now want to restore the balance of power. In this context, according to the latest news, it is entirely possible that after Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, Turkey might also throw its weight against Israel.
Take any major war from history. When an entity is left unbridled, destruction becomes inevitable. There is no need here to detail or cite historical events.
And I think that it's worth mentioning here that, whenever I alluded to Israeli warmongering in my previous articles, I was ridiculed. But everyone has quieted down dramatically since the attacks on Qatar.
Anyways.
Whatever happens, in the coming days, you will surely witness the funeral procession of whatever international laws remain.
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