First, let's start with the war in Ukraine. It is our usual focus, and war will not stop. Now that Donald Trump invaded Venezuela, Vladimir Putin has even more permission to do whatever she wants in his sphere of influence. That's Eastern Europe, hell, it is Europe.
And yes, we are seeing the world split into spheres of influence. The US gets the Americas, Russia gets Europe, and China gets the Far East. So this is not a surprise:
🇺🇦❗️The war will continue, there will be no peace, Putin is determined to eliminate Ukraine as a free and independent state, — The Independent
📍A ceasefire in Ukraine under current conditions would pose a serious threat not only to Kyiv, but also to all of Europe.
📍Despite numerous statements about "imminent peace", there is no reason to believe that 2026 will change the scenario of 2025 — the war will continue, and optimistic promises are based more on political fantasies than on reality.
📍The fighting in Ukraine continues not because of the absence of losses or pressure, but because of the reluctance of key players — both supporters of Ukraine and allies of Russia — to decisively change the balance of power.
📍A temporary ceasefire could become an opportunity for the Kremlin to regroup forces and prepare a new attack, as it has already been in Georgia and Syria.
📍Despite loud statements about "90% readiness for peace", there is currently no real path to ending the war.
📍As long as Russia believes it can gain more by continuing the war than by agreeing to the proposed terms, there is no reason to expect peace.
https://t.me/MAKS23_NAFO/79192
And Russia believes she can get more. In fact, they will expand to the Baltics. This is where we are. And it should not be a shock or a surprise.
Trump posted this on his social media. This is not subtle. But it precedes what is coming. This is the US walking away from Europe, and probably Asia. Let me add the original cartoon.
So here is where we are.
Iran
Now let's look at Iran, and boy, that's a moving target. First Noel Reports, then a second post:
Armed resistance is spreading across Iran as protests escalate. In Ahvaz, gunfire erupted in residential areas, with several civilians reportedly wounded. Security forces were blocked by flaming barricades set up by demonstrators. In Meheltat, protesters torched a police checkpoint and car, with one using a homemade flamethrower against officers. In Ilam province, mourners chanted "Death to the Islamic Republic" during a funeral for a killed protester.
Some protesters in Ilam, Iran are now armed with guns.
To me, post number two caught my attention. Though not that familiar with that channel. There are also reports that security forces are entering hospitals to remove protesters and that the son of the Shah is calling for more of this. Yesterday, this was posted by an Israeli channel, and might be a tipping point:
Significant leak from the Central Bank of Iran
A secret and classified order issued by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic has leaked.
The document instructs all banks, payment networks, credit card systems, and major financial institutions in Iran to immediately enter an active emergency state in anticipation of national unrest, sabotage, shutdown scenarios, and regime-level crisis.
The directive explicitly instructs banks:
• Prepare for power outages and infrastructure collapse
• Security and transfer of critical financial data
• Activation of parallel payment systems in crisis mode
• Prepare for system shutdowns, mass disruptions, and national instability
• Create alternative financial survival mechanisms in case the regime loses control
In simple terms:
The regime is officially preparing for collapse scenarios.
They are no longer planning "if" — they are planning "when."
This is not routine security paperwork.
It is preparation for an economic martial law.
This is a written admission that the regime expects:
• Loss of control
• Mass civil resistance
• Infrastructure failure
• And national instability
The system is preparing for an imminent rupture.
History records moments like these — this is one of them.
The collapse phase has entered the banking system
Gili R. Security
301 Arab World on Telegram
This is far more of an awful noise signal for the regime. So the banks are getting ready for martial law. While at the same time, people are somehow getting armed.
We may be at a tipping point, and I have no idea where Ali Khamenei is. Reportedly, he is in hiding. There are parallels to 1979. And this seems to match my analysis:
NEW: After Trump's threat toward Iran, Tehran's Supreme National Security Council convened an emergency late-night meeting to limit protests with reduced force and brace for potential strikes. Officials privately say the Islamic Republic is now in "survival mode." — NYT.
Until this resolves, we will be playing a guessing game. Realize that if they manage to suppress this, we will have more of this in the future. The feeling I have, don't trust my gut, is that this is already following a pattern that is common in the fall of dictatorships. Iranians have lost their fear. Once you reach that point, short of regime-damaging concessions, it's just a matter of time.
Venezuela.
First, let me add the statement from the European Union. It is fence-sitting, but I get it. They want to see where this goes.
Their concern is Greenland. This is but more from EU leadership about that. They know the same thing I do. Trump is in empire-building mode, and they need to figure out where this is going.
I think the next target, also a low-hanging fruit, will be Cuba. But the list is growing: Mexico, Colombia, Canada; this is not subtle. And even the Russians get it:
The US doesn't need Venezuelan oil, we have enough of our own — Rubio
Washington doesn't need Venezuelan oil, because the US "has enough of its own," said Marco Rubio in an interview with NBC News. At the same time, the US Secretary of State noted that the country cannot allow the control of the Latin American country's industry by opponents of the White House.
Rubio's main statements:
— Venezuela "can no longer be turned into an operations control center" for Iran, Russia, China, Cuban intelligence officers or "Hezbollah";
— The US will continue to stop ships with Venezuelan oil and strike at cartel boats;
— There are no American military personnel in Venezuela, they were there for about 2 hours during the operation to capture Maduro;
— It's premature to talk about holding presidential elections in Venezuela now, Rubio stressed;
— The Cuban government is a "huge problem" for the US;
— Congressional approval was not required for actions in Venezuela — allegedly the operation was not an invasion or an expanded military operation.
The excuses are the same ones Russia used to invade Ukraine. And it is a full-throated justification of early-20th-century imperialism under the renewed Monroe Doctrine. See the cartoons at the top.
So when we emerge from this crisis, we have lost any moral basis to criticize Russia. And when China takes Taiwan and the AI chips we need, it is their sphere of influence.
Is this grim? Yes. I think only Iran offers a potential bright light because a successful revolt there may bring other changes.
Oh, and reportedly, Chavistas are in the streets of Caracas supporting Nicolas Maduro. So, how long until the crew that couldn't shoot has to put troops there? How long until the first American casualty? I know Americans couldn't care less about the 80 or so Venezuelans who have already died. Our media never mentions this. But watching a few interviews with Venezuelan personnel, they are ready for the fight. I am not sure about the current level of training. But we have controlled cities before. And armies far less trained or equipped have defeated US forces. It might take a decade or two, like Iraq or Vietnam, or Nicaragua in the 1930s, or El Salvador in the same time frame.
The peace president is getting us into another forever war. And yes, MAGA, that's what you voted for. So let me close with Kamala Harris's statement. And a reminder, Trump accused her of being the war monger here:
Kamala Harris new statement: "Donald Trump's actions in Venezuela do not make America safer, stronger, or more affordable.
That Maduro is a brutal, illegitimate dictator does not change the fact that this action was both unlawful and unwise. We've seen this movie before. Wars for regime change or oil that are sold as strength but turn into chaos, and American families pay the price.
The American people do not want this, and they are tired of being lied to.
This is not about drugs or democracy. It is about oil and Donald Trump's desire to play the regional strongman. If he cared about either, he wouldn't pardon a convicted drug trafficker or sideline Venezuela's legitimate opposition while pursuing deals with Maduro's cronies.
The President is putting troops at risk, spending billions, destabilizing a region, and offering no legal authority, no exit plan, and no benefit at home.
America needs leadership whose priorities are lowering costs for working families, enforcing the rule of law, strengthening alliances, and — most importantly — putting the American people first.