There's something oddly comforting about admitting you don't know. In a world that rewards confident predictions and bold forecasts, this may seem counterintuitive — especially in investing, where certainty is often marketed as expertise. But more and more, I've come to believe that the phrase "Nobody knows" isn't just a humble admission. It's a form of wisdom, maybe even a competitive edge.
This idea was echoed recently by Howard Marks, the legendary co-founder of Oaktree Capital, in one of his memos titled "Nobody Knows (Yet Again)." The essence of his message was simple but powerful: even the most seasoned investors cannot predict short-term market moves, geopolitical turns, or sudden shifts in economic policy. And the harder we try, the more likely we are to confuse conviction with clarity.
The Illusion of Certainty
As someone who's spent years navigating markets, I've had to unlearn the belief that being right all the time is the hallmark of a good investor. Markets are not math equations; they're messy, emotional, and driven by millions of unpredictable variables. Every chart pattern, macroeconomic projection, or earnings forecast is ultimately a guess. Some are educated guesses, yes, but guesses all the same.
I used to believe I needed to have a thesis about everything — where the S&P 500 is headed, what the Fed will do next, how a certain geopolitical event will ripple through the economy. But experience (and a few humbling mistakes) has shown me the value of approaching the market with curiosity, not certainty. "Nobody knows" doesn't mean we stop analyzing. It means we respect the limits of analysis.
Why It Matters in 2025
This year has already been a case study in uncertainty. From renewed trade tensions to evolving central bank policy to artificial intelligence shaking up industries, we are in uncharted territory. The temptation to overfit narratives or chase short-term signals is stronger than ever. That's why this particular piece of advice — to accept that nobody truly knows — feels so relevant.
When we admit we don't know, we become more flexible. We plan for a range of outcomes instead of betting the farm on a single one. We avoid the trap of overconfidence that often leads to overtrading, bad timing, and unforced errors.
Building a Portfolio for the Unknown
So what does it mean to invest with the mindset that nobody knows?
First, it means diversifying. Not just across asset classes, but across time horizons and even strategies. If we can't predict the future, we can at least prepare for different versions of it. That might mean combining passive index investing with opportunistic active bets, or balancing growth and value rather than picking sides.
Second, it means being honest about risk. Risk isn't just volatility. It's the possibility of being wrong — about anything. Acknowledging uncertainty means setting up safeguards: holding some cash, not using leverage recklessly, and stress-testing assumptions.
Finally, it means letting go of the need to be a hero. You don't have to outsmart the market every quarter. You don't need to call the top or bottom. Often, the best long-term returns come from steady participation, not perfect timing.
My Thoughts
Gone are the days when I only admired the talking heads who always seemed to have an answer. Now, I gravitate toward the ones who ask better questions. Embracing uncertainty doesn't make you weak or indecisive. It makes you realistic.
We are in an age of noise, bold claims, and overconfidence; quietly saying "Nobody knows" may be the most honest — and useful — investment insight we have.
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